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Stabilize rubber prices can be more initiatives
Source: China Rubber Author: Yang HonghuiThe past two years , due to the natural rubber prices continued to slump, domestic natural rubber production is very difficult, multi- mentioned adhesive and natural rubber import tariffs analyze the causes of the problem when it was hoped the national macro-control rubber prices . In fact, in recent years, natural rubber price volatility , on the upstream and downstream have had a serious injury , so the industry is more stable rubber prices urgent requirement is to achieve healthy and sustainable development. And stable rubber prices , government and industry can make a difference in many ways.Factors that affect the price and inventoryThe industry believes that the low price of natural rubber , high inventory , adhesive import more, mainly for the following reasons :First, the global supply and demand due to changes in natural rubber . 2013 , the world's natural rubber production is about 12 million tons , the demand between 11.3 million -1150 million , several hundred thousand tons of surplus supply , resulting in oversupply .Second, China synthetic rubber production capacity expansion and the formation of natural rubber are substitutes relationship. In recent years , due to increased demand for natural rubber in China every year, import dependence has reached about 80% in 2012 before prices rise year after year , even once over 40,000 yuan / ton , thus stimulating the rapid development of the synthetic rubber industry, China synthetic rubber production of 2 million tons from 2008 to 2013 the rapid increase of 4.98 million tons . The natural rubber and synthetic rubber about 20% can be substituted for each other , which is quite sensitive to price relations , both factors that increase the amount of natural rubber , is also a major reason for suppressing the amount of natural rubber .Third , the price of the futures market guide. As we all know , China is now the world's natural rubber watch , Chinese natural rubber to see volume Shanghai , Shanghai Futures Exchange, natural rubber is all a few times on other exchanges in the world in volume . The main driving force is the financial capital of the futures price . Natural rubber price volatility in recent years has been decoupled with the fundamentals , the spot market price and futures price has become a strong correlation , which is closely related to domestic and international capital speculation, closely related to the domestic and international economic trends and financial situation . Among them, the term irrational species and natural rubber trading rules is extremely important.Fourth, financial attributes rubber exceeds its agricultural properties. In recent years, financial capital has entered the rubber trade, and this year the rubber stock is financing the import arbitrage behavior continue to push higher. This operation is not profitable point spreads on the rubber , but rubber as a carrier to obtain financing , income earned abroad spreads . As in 2013 , the domestic monetary and financial market was trapped in a " money shortage" of foreign dollar financing costs of 2% to 4% , while domestic RMB financing costs even more than 10% in the domestic financial constraints , under the background of spreads abroad provide a positive exchange differences arbitrage gains , boosting the financing of trade operations.Fifth, high import tariffs led to adhesive . If the normal tariff on imported natural rubber, with a rubber companies simply can not afford the high tariff pressure. If the high price of natural rubber in 2011 , the country imported 2.1 million tons of natural rubber , while imports amounted $ 9,380,895,000 , the average import price of $ 4,467 / ton to ad valorem tax levied tariffs of up to 5,610 yuan / ton , companies can not afford to digest, large losses . Even lower prices of natural rubber in 2013 , China imported 2.48 million tons of natural rubber , while imports amounted $ 6,396,258,000 , the average import price of $ 2,579 / ton, calculated at 20% ad valorem taxes , tariffs reached 3218.6 yuan / ton. It is due to the normal import duties are too high, before forcing companies to zero import tariffs adhesive .Sixth, adhesive natural rubber import tariffs and prices of basic irrelevant . Adhesive zero tariff as China - ASEAN trade reciprocity on the part of other conditions, has been implemented for many years. 2009 began , adhesive tariffs from 5% to 0 , did not impact on the formation of China's natural rubber prices. On the period December 30, 2008 natural rubber price 10,670 yuan / ton , and by February 14, 2011 price of up to 42,860 yuan / ton. Two years of implementation of zero tariff , but the domestic rubber prices climbing higher and higher , the price level is not visible rubber import tariffs determined by the adhesive .High tariffs do not meet the conditionsAs a fitness area with very limited kinds of strategic materials , the world's natural rubber import tariffs on countries , only China and India , the U.S., Japan , Europe and other industrialized countries have rubber tires with no natural rubber tariffs. India, with an annual output of about 900,000 tons of natural rubber , basically self-sufficient , annual imports of natural rubber as a small supplement , thus setting up natural rubber import tariffs to protect domestic industries .Even so , India's natural rubber import tariffs are still set up to produce tremendous damage to their country's tire industry . Indian tire industry in China is far better basis ( once a British colony, opening up much earlier than China ) , who was in Asia after Japan 's tire production and exporting countries, but is now reduced to tire of the importing country . Because of the rubber import tariffs , the Indian tire industry has been constrained , China , Thailand, Korea , Japan and other countries poured into the Indian tire market .In China, about 80 percent rely on natural rubber imports, not only in the domestic natural rubber production can hardly satisfy the needs, but more in terms of quality, variety and disparity. When a few years and the high prices of natural rubber in front, took place in southern Yunnan and other areas crops cut down rainforest rubber tree phenomenon, all levels of government are doing everything possible to combat the behavior of local deforestation , Chinese natural rubber is no longer a substantial increase in production capacity may therefore not blindly referring to India to set high tariffs .In addition , natural rubber high tariff policy to develop the domestic tire industry has brought a lot of drawbacks . One can only tire companies are forced to import large quantities of zero-tariff trade processing rubber , resulting in a high degree of dependence on the international market , the domestic market is not conducive to corporate branding , and also allows the industry time to face the pressure of international trade friction is not conducive to tire long-term healthy development of the industry .Second, changes in the tire business marketing strategy is difficult in a timely manner in accordance with changes in market conditions , making it difficult to achieve maximum efficiency . As the domestic market situation is good when prices are high , because the enterprise is processing trade imports natural rubber , only exports a way , the market can not be timely conversion . Multinational tire companies are global sourcing, global distribution , and domestic tire companies to go abroad few. In recent years , the domestic automobile market has become the biggest highlight of the global economic growth, but it is hard to be assigned to the domestic tire companies deserve benefits. Third, fueling natural rubber smuggling and other illegal activities .Adhesive should not change the existing standard
It is understood that it was made ??with reference to Hong Kong, China , Macau zero tariff goods origin criteria , reducing the adhesive natural rubber content . The industry believes that this will seriously damage the domestic tire market competitiveness of enterprises with plastic . Hong Kong, China , Macau, there is no tire industry standard adhesive so no real meaning for them , does not have the reference value.No adhesive international standard to follow, China Rubber Industry Association adhesive in order to regulate the market to ensure quality adhesive glue imported enterprise , established in 2006, self- adhesive specification, which has been recognized in the Ministry of Commerce and other departments . Meanwhile , through communication and dialogue with producing countries, governments and associations , the government has also been producing plastic processing companies and associations as well as recognition . If you reduce the proportion of natural rubber adhesive , the adhesive quality can not be guaranteed , not only will affect the safety performance of tires , will seriously affect the use of domestic and foreign enterprises rubber supply , causing great confusion market .If significant reduction in natural rubber adhesive content , not to mention whether they also meet the technological requirements of rubber products , we also have to purchase a large mixing in terms of mixing equipment , equivalent to the Chinese tire enterprises processing steps of 1/3 moved to Southeast Asia, not only technically feasible, but also in Southeast Asia did not have the ability to import virtually equal to the closed door of adhesive .It is understood that China imported 1.54 million tons last year, adhesive , adhesive imports if China closed the door , then the world's natural rubber market will be more surplus , because China's natural rubber accounts for 1/3 of the world above. By then, the natural rubber prices will sharply decline over the years has been reduced to $ 1,000 / ton , which then pulled the world natural rubber prices.Natural rubber prices stabilize proposalNatural rubber prices are too high and too low, would seriously harm the common interests of upstream and downstream enterprises. Therefore , China Rubber Industry Association and domestic tires and other rubber products companies have been calling for the stability of natural rubber prices. Price stability , authorities and industry can make a difference in many ways :First, actively encourage domestic natural rubber producing areas in advance of the old glue -lam be turned species. Gum general life of 30 years, and the latter yields will decline, at a lower price , Southeast Asian governments have encouraged rubber farmers replanting in advance . As per the Thai government to give rubber farmers Levin ( 1 Levin about 2.4 acres ) 26,000 baht ( about 5,200 yuan ) a replanting subsidies.Second, given the small rubber farmers subsidies. Last year the Thai government 's policy is : Levin gum subsidy per 2520 baht ( about 500 yuan ) , the maximum grant for each 20 rubber farmers Levin , tapping rubber farmers do not do other work grant.Third countries to increase their purchasing and storage of natural rubber . China is already the world's largest producer of tires and rubber consuming country , import dependence has reached 80% , in this case , the state should increase the amount of reserves of natural rubber , natural rubber resources to establish a sound national regulatory mechanisms , so that the national reserves glue effectively play in the rubber prices too low to buy , stabilize prices, consolidation and development of natural rubber production base ; thrown in too high rubber prices , stabilize market prices, the prevention and control of inflation , lower raw material costs rubber processing enterprises , to ensure that enterprises normal operation , give full play to the role of the State Reserve and should be used as .Fourth, establish a business purchasing and storage mechanisms. As long as there is a small number of national financial and bank loans to support large domestic tire companies , rubber trade enterprises will participate, and revenue reserves will not be small , because the rubber easy to store , and a longer shelf life .Fifth, establish a stabilization fund of natural rubber . On the one hand can leverage futures , it can also operate the spot . China Rubber Industry Association has been active in the organization of domestic tire companies operate large stabilization fund , but because it is a new thing, wants the state to finance and banking support.